Fitness, fatigue and where the FTP is going

Solid to today, dashed from there on if the plan is ridden as written. Starting point taken from five months of ride history, including commutes estimated from heart rate.

Training Stress Score per week. Three weeks up, one week down, three times over.

A projection, not a promise. It assumes the plan gets ridden, sleep recovers after each run of nights, and weight comes down at the rate above. Each ramp test puts a real dot on the chart — after a few of them it will be obvious which line is the honest one. Note that W/kg climbs faster than raw watts: most of that comes off the scale, not out of the legs.